Why McCain should choose Lieberman as his running mate
The big issue of last week was McCain’s announcement that he would consider picking a pro-choice running mate. Although this was nominally in the context of former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge, this was really about the possibility of putting the Independent Senator Joe Lieberman on the ticket. Unsurprisingly, this has generate a lot of controversy, with Evangelical leaders and even the McCain supporting Weekly Standard say that this would be inadvisable. My take, as someone who has wagered money on this election, including on McCain’s vice presidential pick, is that McCain must ignore such ‘advice’ and choose Lieberman.
The conventional wisdom is that McCain will need someone who is either young or female, has a lot of expertise on the economy and will satisfy more conservative Republicans (or the ‘base’ as it is often called). Governors Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal would satisfy the first and the third criteria, while the current favourite, Mitt Romney, would seem to tick the last two boxes. However, Jindal and Palin do not bring any geographical advantage and are too young and inexperienced. Mitt Romney has had a lot of private sector experience and could help McCain in Michigan. However, even voters in the Republican primaries clearly preferred McCain’s inexperience to Romney’s reiteration of Bush’s economic philosophy.
In contrast Lieberman’s stance on the Iraq war, and his hawkish views on foreign policy, have made him the conscience of the Democratic party, at the same time that he has become an outcast from it. Selecting Lieberman would thwart Obama’s attempts to sideline foreign policy. It would be a powerful signal to swing voters who are disillusioned by both the antiwar stance of the Democrats, and the domestic policy stances of the Republicans. Selecting someone who marched for civil rights would stymie Obama’s cynical attempts to insinuate that McCain is a racist.
Most importantly, it would be a way for McCain to demonstrate that he is truly a maverick. McCain was courageous on foreign policy, but he has made too many concessions on domestic issues. Party identification figures suggest that the only way that McCain can win is if he manages to convince the electorate that he is neither a generic Republican nor someone who will be subservient to the GOP ‘base’ and their self-appointed leaders. Most importantly, the fact that the race remains deadlocked means that driving up Obama’s negative isn’t enough. McCain needs to offer some positive reasons for sending him to the White House.
Interestingly, the reactions to McCain’s musings, although largely negative, have been surprisingly muted. Although Evangelicals and economic conservatives were intensely critical, the hysterical threats of third party candidacies that plagued Giuliani and the calls for a fight at the convention were absent. Even the National Review, which once ran an article demanding that McCain stuff his cabinet with luminaries such as George ‘Macaca’ Allen, seemed prepared to accept McCain’s choice. Having lauded Lieberman for his work on violence in television, and relied on his support when a prominent pastor’s disgraceful views were exposed, the Evangelical Right cannot credibly oppose him.
However, Lieberman will need to acknowledge that he, rather than McCain, will be doing most of the compromising on domestic policy. Lieberman will also have to modify his pro-choice position, which puts him at odds with McCain’s opposition to abortion. However, although he was ultimately unsuccessful, Rudolph Giuliani made a pretty convincing case that a willingness to select pro-life judges is more important than a specific stance on abortion. Ultimately, McCain needs to reassert his position as a moderate on domestic policy and a hawk on foreign affairs, rather than using his running mate to pretend that he doesn’t ‘have more scars than Frankenstein’.
In any case, having floated the idea, McCain will look weak if he doesn’t follow through. If he fails to face down the Republican establishment on such a symbolic issue, he will have difficulty convincing American voters in November that he can be trusted to face down the leadership of Russia and Iran. I’m not American, and my objectivity is compromised by the money that I have staked on Lieberman being McCain’s vice president, but it would be strange if McCain was unable to do what Truman (with Eisenhower), Clinton (with Collin Powell) or even a hack like Kerry (with McCain himself) did and at least offer a place on the ticket to someone from outside their party.
