Predicting Super Tuesday: GOP
January 31, 2008The following are my predictions for the Republican primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday. These are probabilistic predictions, not projections of the vote shares.
Alabama - Huckabee 55% McCain 35% Romney 10%
Arizona - McCain 95% Romney 5%
California - McCain 70% Romney 30%
Colorado - Romney 95% McCain 5%
Connecticut - McCain 90% Romney 10%
Georgia - Huckabee 70% McCain 15% Romney 15%
Illinois - McCain 70% Romney 30%
Massachusetts- Romney 95% McCain 5%
Missouri- Huckabee 45% McCain 30% Romney 25%
New Jersey - McCain 85% Romney 15%
New York - McCain 95% Romney 5%
Oklahoma - McCain 60% Huckabee 30% Romney 10%
Tennessee - Huckabee 60% Romney 30% McCain 20%
So the states to watch are:
Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Illinois, California, Georgia
As it appears the country has lost its mind and McCain is now leading in the polls I have a suggestion for the theme song for the McCain camp and the RNC, “This is the End” by the Doors.