Archive for January, 2008
January 21, 2008
I’ve been ill for the past few days, hence the delay in posting. However, here are my thoughts on the contests on Nevada and South Carolina.
1. McCain’s third place in Nevada, behind Ron Paul, has done nothing to alter the race since his victory in South Carolina and the fact that he didn’t campaign in Nevada, made the result in the Silver State irrelevant for all but Romney.
2. Huckabee’s failure to win in South Carolina has all but destroyed his candidacy. Huckabee came into this contest with the argument that he could combine social conservatism, a centrist economic policy and an appeal to minority voters into an election winning combination. His mediocre showing in Michigan downplayed the importance of his populist policies, while his decision to wrap himself in the Confederate flag undermined the second half of the argument. Even if his comments about gay marriage and making the constitution consistent were merely an unfortunate choice of words, this undermined his claim to being able to sell social conservatism to more moderate voters. The fact that he couldn’t even win the state shows that he can’t even carry his own base.
3. McCain is now the unambiguous frontrunner after his victory in South Carolina.
4. Fred Thompson’s campaign is also dead, although he may stay in the contest to prevent Romney from pulling of a surprise victory in Florida. If he doesn’t he will endorse McCain.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged south carolina | Leave a Comment »
January 19, 2008
The Palmetto State Looks to be edging Huckabee’s way
Taking all the polls ending on January 6th to today inclusive, my projection is: Mike Huckabee 27.91, John McCain 26.62, Fred Thompson 15.37, Mitt Romney 13.19, Ron Paul 3.21 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. 10.66% of voters are still undecided.
Looking at the filtered data I am struck by the fact that many of the undecideds are going to Fred Thompson. Although I don’t like to make Kerry-esque predictions that cover both eventualities, or to contradict my own projections, my gut feel is that Fred Thompson will get around 21% of the final vote, because he is the only candidate who has a strong (-0.51) negative correlation with undecideds (indicating that they will probably go to him). However, this won’t be (in his words) enough to get him a ticket to the dance in Florida. Given that Mike Huckabee’s dismal results in Michigan, and his decision to imitate the rhetoric of Richard Santorum, has eliminated his claim to be the electable face of Social Conservatism, I predict that two candidates left standing will be John McCain and Mitt Romney.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged fred thompson, john mccain, mike huckabee, mitt romney, ron paul, rudolph giuliani, south carolina | 2 Comments »
January 16, 2008
The Senator from Arizona leads Huckabee by over 10% in national polls
Taking all the polls ending on December 30th to January 13th inclusive, my national projection is: John McCain 31.46, Mike Huckabee 20.20 Rudolph Giuliani 11.66, Mitt Romney 11.43, Fred Thompson 10.42 and Ron Paul 3.4. Just over 11% of voters are still undecided.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged fred thompson, john mccain, mike huckabee, mitt romney, national polls, ron paul, rudolph giuliani | 6 Comments »
January 16, 2008
TPT reflects on Romney’s victory
1. I really should not get involved with trying to second guess my projections. My decision to project Romney ahead but predict a McCain victory was a ‘Kerry-esque’ stunt too far. Although political betting is about anticipating changes in polling figures, there is a limit to the value that such analysis can add on election night.
2. This is a great night for Romney and a bad one for McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani. South Carolina is pretty much a three-way contest between Huckabee, McCain and Romney, with the latter two needing to come second to stay in the contest (Huckabee needs to win or he is finished).
3. McCain really needs to find his voice on economic issues. Although he is constrained by the need to appear more conservative than he actually is, he needs to go after Huckabee for his support of the ‘fair’ tax and Romney for his tax-dodging and incompetent management of a public works project as Governor.
4. McCain also needs to stop being so complacent. He cannot just hope to coast through the primaries. He is already taking hits from Rush Limbaugh and the people who are attempting to smear his record are starting to get some attention from the mainstream media.
5. Although the number of crossovers were reduced by the cold weather, McCain (and the Republican) party needs to move to the centre on economic issues. They are not going to hold every single state so they can’t simply rely on national security and Iraq.
6. Giuliani is dead. He’s finished behind Paul in Iowa and Michigan and behind Huckabee in New Hampshire. The fact that he fell behind the non candidacy of Fred Thompson was the final nail in the coffin.
7. If Huckabee is nominated he’s going to get crushed. While McCain has had to tone down his economic populism, Huckabee went in there with all his guns blazing. 16% of the vote indicates that if he gets the nomination the Republican party will get creamed.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged fred thompson, michigan, mike huckabee, mitt romney, ron paul, rudolph giuliani | 4 Comments »
January 15, 2008
I’ve sold short 20 contracts of Giuliani winnng the Republican nomination. My rationale is that it is a three way contest (or two if McCain wins in Michigan tonight).
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, rudolph giuliani | 1 Comment »
January 15, 2008
TPT’s final predictions for Michigan
With the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: Mitt Romney 29.57, John McCain 28.62 Mike Huckabee 15.46 Ron Paul 7.04, Fred Thompson 4.42 and Rudolph Giuliani 3.04. The undecideds have shrunk to 11.85%. My guess is that pollsters are underestimating McCain’s support from Democrats and Independants, so I’m going to cross my fingers and give John McCain a 55% chance of winning tonight. It goes without saying that if Giuliani comes behind Ron Paul and Fred Thompson (or even one of those candidates) then he should pack up and endorse John McCain (though I can see Dick Morris getting him to endorse Huckabee). For the record my projections with the undecideds are (assuming that Duncan Hunter gets 0.5% of the vote and the other undecideds split proportionately) are: Romney 33.38, McCain 32.31, Huckabee 17.45, Paul 7.95, Thompson 4.99, Giuliani 3.43 and Duncan Hunter 0.5.. My guess is that Hillary has a 65% chance of getting the 50% she needs for a moral victory and a 75% chance of winning outright against uncomitted.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged duncan hunter, fred thompson, john mccain, michigan primaries, mike huckabee, mitt romney, ron paul, rudolph giulianii | 10 Comments »
January 14, 2008
Still too close to call
With Zogby and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 13th, my projection is: John McCain 26.96 Mitt Romney 26.03% Mike Huckabee 14.3 Ron Paul 7.36 Rudolph Giuliani 6.35 and Fred Thompson 4.63. Nearly 15% of voters are still undecided.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged john mccain, michigan polling, mitt romney | 1 Comment »
January 14, 2008
McCain could wrap up the nomination tomorrow night. Even if he loses to Romney in Michigan he is still the frontrunner. However, he cannot be complacent.
John McCain – If he wins tuesday night he has an 80% chance of winning the nomination and if he fails he still has about a 50% chance. However, he needs to keep with his message and really go after Huckabee’s support on the flat tax. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 65%. Price on Intrade.com 42.7-43.3. UNDERPRICED
Mike Huckabee – Huckabee’s populist message has surprisingly failed to ignite. If he can’t pull of a surprise victory in Michigan then his ability to win voters outside the Deep South will be called into question. It is also axiomatic that if he ends up facing John McCain then the even establishment and the base will rally around the Arizona senator. His chances of winning the nomination are 15%. Price on Intrade.com 14.7-14.8. SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED.
Mitt Romney – He need to win Michigan and then somehow win in South Carolina, otherwise his goose is cooked. Price on Intrade.com 10% 12.1-13.7 OVERPRICED
Rudolph Giuliani. McCain has pretty much surpassed him as ‘none of the above’ alternative to both Romney and Huckabee. The fact that he trailed behind Huckabee in New Hampshire was pretty much the final nail in his coffin. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 5%. Price on Intrade.com 19.3-19.4. OVERPRICED
Fred Thompson – He might finally, according to the pundits, have put in a good performance in a debate, but his poll figures in Iowa are just not responding.. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are about 5% Price on Intrade.com 3.4-3.5. UNDERVALUED
Posted in Election 2008 | Leave a Comment »
January 13, 2008
I bought 35 contracts on Mitt Romney winning South Carolina. My belief is that unless he wins both Michigan and South Carolina he won’t be the nominee (leaving John McCain as the overwhelming favourite). This reduces my free funds to £127.61 but I am now almost guaranteed to turn a small profit (barring a series of unforseen events).
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, john mccain, mitt romney | Leave a Comment »
January 13, 2008
The contest in Michigan comes down to the wire (again).
With the Detroit News and Mitchell having produced polls that end on the 12th, my projection is: John McCain 25.04 Mitt Romney 24.49% Mike Huckabee 14.44 Rudolph Giuliani 6.32 Ron Paul 5.38 and Fred Thompson 4.12. It is amazing that 20.11% of voters are still undecided. My guess is that McCain’s support amoung Democrats and Independants and the efforts made by Tim Pawlentry and Joe Lieberman will be balanced by Romney’s attempts to manipulate McCain’s blunt talk about job losses and the need for retraining (and the attempts by Daily Kos.com to manipulate the Republican primary) to create a completely open contest. Even if McCain wins here he still has a shot at victory, while both this and South Carolina are must win states for Romney.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged john mccain, michigan primary, mitt romney | Leave a Comment »
January 12, 2008
Antiwar website owner attempts to create a ‘Democrats for Romney’ movement.
One of the strangest stories of this election cycle is the last ditch attempt by Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, owner of antiwar DailyKos.com, to derail John McCain’s candidacy for the Republican nomination by encouraging Democrats to vote in the open primary in Michigan for Mitt Romney. As he says, ‘we want Romney in, because the more Republican candidates we have fighting it out, trashing each other with negative ads and spending tons of money, the better it is for us. We want Mitt to stay in the race, and to do that, we need him to win in Michigan’. Of course, I agree with him that Mitt Romney is one of the weakest of the five serious candidates that the Republicans could run (although Huckabee runs a close second) and that McCain is the strongest. However, it does raise the question as to whether this will have much impact on the contest.
There is the obvious question as to how many Democrats will take part in the primary. Although only Hillary Clinton is on the ballot there will almost certainly be an attempt by Edwards and Obama supporters to vote for the ‘uncommitted’ option on the ballot paper. Indeed, in 2000 when the Democratic primary was not on the same day, Democrats accounted for only 17% of those taking part. Although John McCain benefited greatly from such switching, he would still have beaten Bush by 4% if no democrats had voted for him. It is also debatable as to how influential Daily Kos can be. Both their preferred candidates, Wesley Clark and then Howard Dean failed in 2004 and the overwhelming favourite, John Edwards is trailing in third place. Even their defeat of Joe Lieberman in 2004, although a sign that the Democrat party had been taken over by the antiwar movement, was little different from campaigns run by those on the extremes of both parties against centrist candidates (a fact which they admitted here). In any case the voters ultimately sent both Daily Kos and Ned Lamont a message by electing Lieberman.
Although, it might blunt McCain’s support and muddy the waters a little bit, it’s impact might actually be positive if it pushes Democrats disillusioned with the dominance of antiwar activists into McCain’s camp. Indeed, Romney supporters are already trying to spin it as some sort of attempt to boost McCain through the use of reverse psychology.
What do you think? Please leave a comment below.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged daily kos, john mccain, michigan primary, mitt romney | Leave a Comment »
January 10, 2008
Bought 10 contracts on a Huckabee victory in Michigan and 5 contracts on Bloomberg running. Both of these are value bets and hedges to my McCain position. After my successful shorting of Ron Paul, and today’s trades I have $156.86 in cash left.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, bloomberg, huckabee, mccain | 1 Comment »
January 9, 2008
TPT analyses the New Hampshire Primary
1. McCain is now clearly the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and has at least a 50% chance of winning it.
2. Likewise, Hillary should comfortably win the Democrat nomination (about a 80% chance).
3. Although racism and the ‘Bradley effect’ have been cited across the blogosphere as contributors to Obama’s defeat, the treal reason what probably closer to the ’silent Conservative’ problem where people are afraid to admit that they are more hawkish and Conservative than they actually are, especially when it is seen as ‘unhip’ not to support a particular candidate (the British election of 1992 and the US Election of 2004 were textbook examples of this).
4. Iran also played a major part since it reminded people of the foreign policy challenges that the next President is going to face. The fact that McCain actually polled better among registered Republicans than independants says it all.
5. Hillary needs to learn the lesson from the last fortnight, which is that she should stick to substance rather than hitting below the belt and that a little humility goes a long way.
6. McCain needs to really push his retraining programme in Michigan. Provided he keeps to the trifecta of Iraq, retraining and cleaning up Washington he could easily push Mitt Romney into third (Huckabee will sew up the protectionist vote).
7. Although I dislike Hillary for her sleazy ethics and the insincerity of her support for the liberation of Iraq (and her readiness to disassociate herself from it), Hillary is miles better than the empty suit that is Barack Obama. Obama (and possibly Huckabee) is the only candidate who could actually allow the terrorists to do some major damage in the Middle East (although Hillary’s enthusiasm for withdrawing from Iraq will lead to the re-enslavement of the Iraqi people). Similarly, although Romney has been a successful businessperson, America does not need a Powerpoint Presidency.
8. Along with John McCain, the big winner of the Republican primary is Joe Lieberman. His endorsement lifted McCain from the mid teens, and made him a serious contender for New Hampshire. It also bumped him past Ron Paul and Rudolph Giuliani in Iowa. The fact that Daily Kos’s prediction of a Romney victory was disproved was just the icing on the cake.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, hillary clinton, john mccain, michigan primary, mike huckabee, mitt romney, new hampshire primary | 1 Comment »
January 8, 2008
TPT’s final predictions for New Hampshire
I am going to produce two sets of projections; traditional vote share predictions and probabilistic predictions.
For both primaries I’m going to make the assumption that undecides split in roughly the same proportion as the voters who have already decided. So for the Democrat side I am prediciting: Barack Obama 41.56, Hillary Clinton 32.40, John Edwards 19.47 and Bill Richardson 6.14. For the Republicans I am going to predict: John McCain 35.10 Mitt Romney 31.24, Mike Huckabee 12.17, Rudolph Giuliani 10.32 and Ron Paul 8.69 Fred Thompson 2.49% (Hunter will get less than 1% and probably something too small to count). In terms of probabilities I’m going to give Obama a 95% chance of winning and McCain a 70% chance. In terms of the GOP contest I have my fingers crossed for a McCain victory and for the Dems I hope that Hillary can bounce back (though as a non-American I really shouldn’t be saying this).
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, john mccain, new hampshire prediction | Leave a Comment »
January 8, 2008
Will the ‘Audacity of Hope’ actually manage to pull off a convincing victory?
Inputting the latest polls (as of 17:40 GMT) produces the following projections: Barack Obama 38.89 Hillary Clinton 30.32 John Edwards 18.22 Bill Richardson 6.14. Only 6.73% of voters are undecided. It looks like Barack Obama is going to have a huge amount of momentum. I will be producing my final predictions at 20:00 GMT.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, hillary clinton, new hampshire polling | Leave a Comment »
