Archive for February, 2008
February 18, 2008
Huckabee closes the gap with McCain further while Clinton passes Obama.
Using Samplemiser, I have produced the following updated projections for Wisconsin:
John McCain 46.42
Mike Huckabee 39.66
Hillary Clinton 47.39
Barack Obama 43.97
Huckabee seems to be closing fast on McCain, who will need to step up his campaigining if he is to avoid an embarassing defeat. Clinton seems to have overtaken Obama, which makes her decision to stop campaigning in Wisconsin rather puzzling. We could very well see her making a last minute change to her plans. Although some may criticise the pollster, American Reseach Group, it should be noted that its performance has been comprable to other pollsters this season.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, hillary clinton, john mccain, mike huckabee, wisconsin | 1 Comment »
February 17, 2008
McCain and Clinton comfortably ahead in Ohio
Using Samplemiser, I have produced the following projections for Ohio:
John McCain 48.28
Mike Huckabee 34.44
Hillary Clinton 51.84
Barack Obama 37.17
Hillary Clinton has a clear lead in Ohio, although it is starting to compress. She will need some good results on Tuesday to prevent it from collapsing, which means restricting Obama’s margin to single digits in Wisconsin. On the Republican side John McCain has actually increased his lead. In any case the Arizona Senator should be able to put this away, although he cannot be complacement, and forget to campaign in the state.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, hillary clinton, john mccain, mike huckabee, ohio, wisconsin | Leave a Comment »
February 16, 2008
The markets move away from the Senator from New York
A few days ago it seemed like the markets were starting to reassess Hillary Clinton’s chances of getting the nomination. Indeed, at one point her chances reached 35. However, they are now back at 25.6-25.9. There is very little news that can justify this. Although a few superdelegates may be wavering, there is every indication that she will run Obama close in Wisconsin, and possibly beat him there. Either result would severely reduce his momentum. My advice is to take advantage of such prices while you can!
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, democratic nomination, hillary clinton | 1 Comment »
February 16, 2008
Huckabee closes in on McCain and Obama surges into a lead with Clinton.
Using Samplemiser, I have produced the following projections for Wisconsin:
John McCain 48.81
Mike Huckabee 31.34
Barack Obama 47.11
Hillary Clinton 42.22
As you can see from the above chart, Obama has surged into the lead in the Democatic contest while Huckabee has closed the gap with McCain. However, the chart also suggests that Huckabee’s boost from the withdrawal of Romney has started to peak and Obama’s lead may have started to fall back a bit. With Hillary finally taking Wisconsin seriously and McCain campaiging there, my gut feel is that the Democratic contest is going to be close, while McCain should win by a margin comprable to that in Virginia.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged hillary clinton, john mccain. barack obama, wisconsin | 1 Comment »
February 15, 2008
Why you should not read too much into Romney’s endorsement of McCain
The decision of Mitt Romney to endorse John McCain and to urge his delegates to support the Arizona Senator has led to speculation as to why someone who was so critical of John McCain during the primaries was willing to patch things up with him in such a public way, especially when there was the possibility that a brokered convention might still give him a chance at the nomination. This has ignited a fresh round of speculation that McCain might choose Romney as his vice-president, with the aims of both uniting the Republican Party and shoring up his credentials on economic issues.
However, Romney is only releasing his delegates and there are doubts that he can force them to choose McCain. This is more to do with a Romney being in the ‘on-circle’ for 2012 (or 2016) than him wanting to be in the Naval Observatory. In any case Romney wouldn’t add much to the ticket and his selection as Vice-President would alienate the Evangelical Right. The differences in foreign policy and economic policy will make McCain war of putting Romney next in line to the Presidency. Essentially Romney’s endorsement doesn’t change a thing, except that a brokered convention will probably result in a McCain/Romney ticket rather than one with McCain and Huckabee. John McCain still needs to win an absolute majority of delegates in his own right if he wants to select the Vice President of his choosing and take the Republican Party towards the centre.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged john mccain, mike huckabee, mitt romney, republican nomination | Leave a Comment »
February 14, 2008
Will the Chafee endorsement put Obama over the top?
One of the defining moments of the campaign so far was Joe Lieberman’s endorsement of John McCain. Although Lieberman had previously campaigned with McCain last summer, it emphasised McCain’s credibility and his stance on Iraq. Therefore one might be mistaken for thinking that Lincoln Chafee’s rumoured endorsement of Barack Obama would do the same. Of course this will give Chafee his five minute of fame, but Chafee’s endorsement is clearly not the same as Joe Lieberman’s of McCain.
However, this is not correct because for every similarity there is a difference. Firstly, Lieberman is an independant Democrat who lost his primary and then sucessfully took on the Democratic machine while Chafee managed to pull a win in his primary only to be crushed in November. At the same time Lieberman was a previously senior Democrat who was the party’s vice-presidential nominee in 2000, while Chafee was a semi-detached Republican who wrote-in a vote for George HW Bush in 2004. While Lieberman earned his Senate seat after being Attorney General of Connecticut, Chafee inherited his seat from his father. Chafee also was not really known as a legislator. While Lieberman was pushing through major bipartisan initatives Chafee was refusing to vote for John Bolton as Ambassador to the UN. In effect the difference between Chafee and Lieberman is between a dilettante who was handed a Senate seat on a silver spoon and a statesman.
What do you think? Leave your comments below.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, Joe Lieberman, john mccain, lincoln chafee | Leave a Comment »
February 14, 2008
Punters start to shift away from the possibility of a brokered convention
Bettors have begun to move away from the possibility of a brokered convention with the price falling to 15-17.5. This is an intelligent move since even if it isn’t decided by the March primaries there is no way that the Democratic hierachy could gamble on a repeat of 1968. However, given that this is the last chance for Hillary Clinton I would still say that there was a 15% chance of a brokered convention, so if things fall further the contract might become good value.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, brokered convention, hillary clinton | Leave a Comment »
February 14, 2008
It may be a statistical tie, but is it a decisive blow for Obama?
For the first time ever, Barack Obama has pull ahead of Hillary Clinton in the Gallup Tracking poll. Although the 45-44 margin is too close to be anything other than a stastical tracking error, the trend is pretty clear. Hillary is on the defensive while Obama is still rising. It might be stating the obvious, but Hillary really needs to pull a rabbit about of a hat. She needs to publically challenge to a debate and stick to the issues, running Walter Mondale’s “where’s the beef” commercial might help as well.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, democratic nomination, hillary clinton | Leave a Comment »
February 13, 2008
The Senator from New York falls to around 25 on Intrade.com
The price on the Senator from New York pulling off the nomination continues to drift downwards. Although I think her chances should only be at evens, the price at intrade.com continues to remain tremendous value.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, democratic nomination, hillary clinton, intrade.com | 1 Comment »
February 13, 2008
An alternative to Betfair for those interested in betting on the Mayoralty of the ‘Big Smoke’
One of the ironies of this website has been that while I have extensively commented on American betting markets, I have said little recently about those on the other side of the Atlantic. One of the reasons for this is that as a non-American who has no direct stake in the outcome (except of course in regards to the War on Terror) I can be more objective about the US elections. Indeed, even though I may lean towards McCain because of his foriegn policy stance I have no overriding loyalty to either the Democrats or the Republicans. Another reason is that there isn’t much going on in British politics these days. However, on May 4th Londoners (like myself) will go to the polls. Up until now punters have only been limited to the market on Betfair.com. However, at my prompting, Intrade.com have launched a market on the mayoral election. I will therefore step up my coverage of the mayoral election over the next few weeks.
Posted in British Politics | Tagged boris johnson, intrade.com, ken livingstone, mayor of london | Leave a Comment »
February 13, 2008
TPT looks back at last nights results
1. This was a stupendous night for McCain. If he can beat Huckabee in Virginia and crush him in Maryland and Washington DC, Huckabee doesn’t have a hope in hell. McCain has proved that he doesn’t need to pander to the right to win primaries and can safely move to the centre to attract independants.
2. This was a good night for Obama in that he exceeded even his high expectations. However, Hillary still can pull it back with wins in Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.
3. Any hope of ‘Republicans for Hillary’ being a factor in her favour is now dead.
4. I therefore believe that the chances of Obama and winning the nomination are about even.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, dc, hillary clinton, john mccain, maryland, virginia | 1 Comment »
February 12, 2008
TPT makes some final predictions for DC, MD & VA:
For the Republicans …
Virginia: McCain by 5
Maryland: McCain by 7
Washington DC: McCain by 10
…and on the Democratic side
Virginia: Obama by 8
Maryland: Obama by 10
Washington DC: Obama by 35
Essentially, voters will desert the GOP to vote for Clinton and against Obama and a low turnout will boost Huckabee’s share of the vote. However, McCain’s campaigning enables him to sweep the board. Obama wins all the primaries, but with a much reduced margin.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, hillary clinton, john mccain, mike huckabee, potomac primaries | Leave a Comment »
February 12, 2008
A brokered convention is in no way inevitable
The question of whether the Democratic contest will be settled before their convention in Denver is an extremely pertinant one. Many people have pointed out that as it will be very difficult for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to get a majority of delegates on pledged delegates alone, Superdelegates at the national convention will decide things. However, I believe that this is incorrect for the following reasons:
1. Hillary is likely to end the primary season with a clear mandate – Provided Hillary can keep Obama’s margin in Virginia in single figures and avoid any other unexpected defeats, I predict she will surprise everyone and wrap up the nomination with solid wins in Texas and Ohio. This momentum will give her the mandate to pressure Barack Obama into accepting a place on the bottom of the ticket.
2. If there is no candidate with a clear mandate the Superdelegates will move decisively to one candidate – Although Hillary Clinton will hang on by her fingernails as long as she thinks she has a chance (which is why she must be considered the favourite for the nomination) even she will throw in the towel if enough of her superdelegates move into Obama’s camp. Howard Dean and other Democratic grandees will make sure that this happens if Obama is clearly ahead.
3. The candidate have been civil enough to keep hopes of a ‘dream ticket’ alive – Although the expectation is that the defeated candidate would refuse the vice-presidential spot, there is no actual impediment towards both of them appearing on the ticket. After all, up until November a Clinton-Obama ticket was considered a strong possibility.
4. Obama is young enough to try again – The fact that this is seen as Hillary Clinton’s only chance will mean that Obama will come under pressure from party grandees not to throw a spanner in the work. Although the Democrats don’t do Republican style ‘deals’ Obama has a long career ahead of him and would definitely benefit from another four years in the Senate.
The only way I can see a brokered convention happening is if Obama comes out ahead but Hillary Clinton is able to keep enough super-delegates on board to keep her hopes alive.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, brokered convention, hillary clinton | Leave a Comment »
February 11, 2008
… but can he translate that into a sweep on ’Potomac Tuesday’?
The latest Gallup tracking poll has McCain on 57% and Huckabee on 23%, with 10% of voters still wanting Romney to win (the remainder from the last day Romney was an option). However, McCain has done badly where he has not campaigned, with his voters either voting for someone else or not bothering to turn up. He has only scheduled one event today, which is a rally in Virginia. My prediction is that he will win Virginia by 5, Maryland by 7 and DC by 15. However, he should really have spent the extra day hitting the campaign trail so he can turn his attention to the general election.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged dc, john mccain, maryland, mike huckabee, virginia | Leave a Comment »
February 11, 2008
The Senator from New York falls further in the estimation of punters
Hillary’s Clinton price has continued to fall on Intrade.com with contracts on her winning the nomination trading below 30 for the first time ever. However, although the polls in Maryland and Virginia are unforgiving, and she has no chance of carrying Washington DC, she might have lowered expectations enough to enable a realtively close race to be portrayed as a ’score draw’. There are also rumours that, for the first time Republicans are going to turnout to support her to stop Obama winning the nomination. I’m going to predict that she loses the District by 60, Maryland by 12 and Virginia by only 8. These are only gut predictions but I think the twenty point leads that the polls are suggesting are simply too large.
Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged barack obama, district of columbia, hillary clinton, intrade, maryland, virginia | Leave a Comment »
