Punters move to Obama after ‘Judasgate’
March 25, 2008Carville’s gaffe and revelations about Hillary’s Clinton’s (lack of involvement) in Bosnia push punters towards Obama
After a brief lull, prompted by Wrightgate, the Tom-and-Jerry fight that is the contest for the Democratic nomination resumed with the media blasting Hillary Clinton for her exaggeration of her role in Bosnia and James Carville’s comment comparing Bill Richardson to Judas Iscariot. This has led to Obama’s price moving up to 80 on Intrade. Although both events were hardly the sort of publicity that Team Hillary would have wanted, they aren’t nearly as damaging as ‘Wrightgate’. Of the two, Carville’s loose tongue is the worse since it removes Richardson as a potential Vice-President and will mean that he could go from being merely an endorser of Obama, to a very active and very angry surrogate. I’m still handicapping this contest as 50/50.
I think the most serious consequence of Carville’s “Jucas Iscariot” label will is that it will galvanize otherwise-unpledged superdelegates behind Sen. Obama. Judging from Carville’s additute and Gov. Richardson’s telephone conversation with Hillary, the Clinton campaign is content with bullying superdelegates into supporting her and comparing them to the worst traitors in history for acting otherwise.
That’s no way for her to get the superdelegates she needs to secure the Democratic nomination. To make matters worse for her, superdelegates are the only way she can win.