Betting Journal Update
May 15, 2008TPT Reviews his betting journal
There hasn’t been much activity on my account because I’ve got three types of bet, neither of which are rational to trade. The first type is the bets that I think will win. The second type is what I would consider value bets, bets I expect to lose, but which are priced too low relative to their chances. The final group are bets I will definitely lose, but ones which are too expensive to trade away.
Bets I expect to win
GOP.NOM.MCCAIN = +39 contracts
GOP.PRES.OBAMA = -17 contracts
PRES.REP = +32
DEM.VP.WEBB = +10
DEM.VP.WARNER = +10
DEM.VP.NUNN = +10
DEM.VP.DASCHLE =+10
DEM.VP.KERREY=+10
DEM.VP.FIELD=+10
Value bets
DEM.NOM.CLINTONN = +24 contracts
CONNECTICUT.REP=+10
Cost less to let them expire
PRESIDENT.FIELD2008=+85
GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE=+13
GOP.NOM.GINGRICH=+30
GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)=+20
GOP.NOM.BARBOUR=+100
GOP.NOM.SANFORD=+100
HOUSE.GOP.2008=+9
BLOOMBERG.08.INDEPENDANT=+5
I also have some bets with Betfair, Ladbrokes & PaddyPower, which are kept strictly separate from my regular betting journal.
It is quite rational to sell your McCain nomination shares now unless you really think there is no way to earn better than a 5% (or so) return on investment between now and September. You would free up over $350 for use on contracts that pay off sooner and/or at higher EV.
Please explain, too, how it is not rational to trade any of your Dem VP contracts. It is not at all obvious that you have an optimized portfolio of them.