McCain ahead in Michigan (as of May 22nd)
June 11, 2008But would McCain be ahead if the election was held today?
My latest projections are:
John McCain 44.05
Barack Obama 40.2
McCain beats both Obama and Clinton by 4.03%. This is good news because despite the fact that Michigan does not follow national trends a closely as other states (with an R2 of only 0.80), it has an intrinsic bias towards the Democrats of 2.35%. However, the last poll with likely voters was in late May so it may not be a particularly good indicator of the current state of play. If McCain can win Michigan, without putting Mitt Romney on the Republican ticket, then I cannot see how Obama can become President.
