My view on the top ten running mates for Obama
Now that Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee, I am going to give my views on who should be his running mate – or more accurately who I, as someone who has a lot of money staked against the Senator, fear the most. Although all of them are plausible, the emphasis is on electability, not likelihood of being chosen.
High (possibly devastating) Threat
1. Michael Bloomberg – Bloomberg would be a perfect pick for Obama. It’s not just that he’s Jewish, or a prominent figure in the North-East, its that his liberal economic and social views will attract independents and force McCain to work harder to retain the support of economic conservatives. If Bloomberg put a fraction of his personal fortune into the campaign he could probably throw enough money to put some of the states that McCain is targeting out of play. Fortunately, for the GOP Bloomberg’s decision to send his campaign manager to help out at the GOP convention suggests that he may be looking toward Albany rather than Pennsylvania Avenue.
2. Collin Powell – If there is one Obama leaning Republican who has the potential to boost Obama it is Collin Powell. His military experience would really boost the Obama ticket and undo most of the damaged caused by Wright. His involvement in the Iraq War means that it would be very difficult for McCain to attack Obama as weak on foreign policy. He seemed to be leaning towards Obama in the primaries but will he really stick a knife into the back of his longstanding friend John McCain – especially to benefit someone who sat mute in the pews while Jeremiah Wright ripped into, ‘those who live below the level of Clarence Collin and Condamnesia’.
Moderate to High Threat
3. Mark Warner – Southern, moderate and with executive and business experience, Warner’s selection would help Obama move to the centre and assuage fears that he would move America in a direction that was too radical for the population at large. It should also be remembered that before Obama was seen as a serious candidate, Warner was the ‘candidate of change’. The only downside is that he has a serious shot at the nomination in 2012 (since a Warner/Ford ticket would be unbeatable) and may prefer to sit out this contest in favour of four years in the Senate.
4. Hillary Clinton – Clinton is obviously divisive and is scheming. However, putting her on the ticket would bring to mind a certain phrase of LBJ’s involving tents and bathrooms. She would obviously bring Hillary Democrats on board and her emphasis on economic issues would be the correct campaign strategy. It would also signal that Barack Obama might even be serious about his recent rhetoric about Israel. The only problem is that both candidates have backed themselves into a situation where an Obama/Clinton ticket would involve a serious loss of face. Personally, I don’t think Hillary Clinton wants the job since she is prepared to take her chances with 2012. There is also the small issue of the comments that she made about Obama’s readiness for the job of Commander-in-Chief.
5. Chuck Hagel – Hagel clearly has slipped the moorings of the Republican party. He also opposed the War in Iraq and would make the case that Obama is serious about working across the aisle. However, like with Collin Powell, the question is whether he will leave the Republican party right at the moment a moderate triumphs.
Moderate Threat
6. Bill Richardson – Richardson’s selection would probably nail down New Mexico for Obama and possibly even Nevada and Colorado, forcing McCain on the offensive. It would also be harder to run a negative campaign against an Obama/Richardson ticket. However, he ran a dismal campaign this time around and he withdrew his name from consideration in 2004 in mysterious circumstances, indicating that he may have some skeletons in his closet.
7. James Webb – Webb is aggressive, populist, has strong military credentials and definitely has an appeal to Appalachian voters. However, he creates as many problems as he solves. Although the charge of misogyny is pretty much unfair, as even Condi Rice is no fan of women on the front lines of the military, this will definitely be used by discordant Hillary supporters as an excuse to support McCain. There is also the question of whether Webb’s paleoconservative outlook is really what the campaign wants, given that Obama has decided to walk away from his more outrageous foreign policy blunders. It should be noted that Webb also relied on refugees from the DC area and in Northern Virginia generally to deliver victory in 2006.
8. Ken Salazar – Salazar would have the benefits of Bill Richardson, while nailing down Colorado rather than New Mexico. The only problem is that, like Obama, he only spent four years in the Senate (although unlike Obama he had a successful career as the attorney general’ of Colorado).
Weak Threat
9. General Wesley Clark – Even though Obama has evidently started to realise that he needs to moderate his foreign policy positions the would be well advised to pick someone who has impeccable foreign policy credentials. However, Clark ran an uninspiring campaign in 2004 and his loyalties might lie with a certain Senator from New York.
10. Ted Strickland – The Governor of Ohio would be a strong choice because he could deliver a very important state and really put a stick in the spokes of Republican strategy. However, his national profile isn’t really that large and he does nothing to swing Pennsylvania or other key states.
