The Political Tipster

A bridge too far or a worthwhile trade-off?

My new projections are:

Barack Obama 47.1
John McCain 44.9

As per usual they are based on samples of likely voters filtered through Samplemiser. Now, as the graph shows, this is the first time Obama’s lead has fallen outside the 4-6 point range in nearly a month. There are two interpretations for this, one positive and one negative (for McCain). The positive interpretation is that Obama’s sudden U-turn on almost everything he has stood for has been too fast to be credible and is transparently false. Furthermore, it has emphasised his inexperience and the potential pitfalls of electing somone who was a State Senator four years ago. However, the other intepretation is that Obama has done what Bill Clinton did in 1982, which is to take a short term hit (in Clinton’s case by apologizing for his mistakes as governor) to achieve a long term stategic objective. My gut feeling is that even if the latter is the case, the extra 4-5 points that Obama will undoubtedly lose will be enough to ensure a McCain victory (albiet a small one). In any case McCain’s team desperately need to make the case that Obama’s left-liberal voting record undermines any attempt he might now make to run to the centre, while moving back to the centre himself.