It’s Condi, not Sarah, Kay or Carly
There is strong speculation that McCain will try to make history by choosing a female running mate, either as a gesture in itself, or as a response to Obama choosing a female running mate. My view is that there is only one credible female candidate, Condoleezza Rice. Now, by saying that there is only one credible female Republican candidate I am not denigrating female politicians, or trying to be a chauvinist. The fact is that the pool of female Senators and Governors is sadly very small, so it is logical that McCain should have extremely limited options when I think there are only two strong male running mates (Lieberman and Giuliani) and several reasonable choices (Ridge, Huntsman Jr & Alvarez). Indeed, in addition to the Secretary of State only Sarah Palin, Kay Bailey Hutchinson and Carl Fiorina have been tipped by commentators.
Firstly, I think that the political benefits of choosing a female running mate are wildly overestimated. The ‘Hillary-istas’ (women who supported Hillary because she was a woman) will eventually return to Obama, or support McCain, irrespective of the gender of any running mates. In fact Hillary Clinton fans might actually prefer to wait until 2012 so that Hillary can run again, and not look kindly on a woman who tried to steal any limelight that they felt belonged to Hillary Clinton. The only exceptions to this are single African-American women who identify more with Condi’s story than that of Hillary’s. Choosing a female running mate in response to Obama might even look like pandering. More importantly, I think that Sarah Palin lacks the experience; Kay Bailey Hutchinson is too much of a Republican hack while Carly Fiorina would be a disaster.
Indeed, Carly Fiorina represents the worst side of the Mitt Romney wing of the Republican Party. I don’t much care for Romney but at least he took the time to be elected to an office before running. In contrast, Fiorina not only put profit (and stock options) before patriotism but she has never shown any inclination for public service whatsoever. She is an execrable campaigner, who didn’t even both to read up on McCain’s record on abortion before she tried to make up social policy on the hoof. While Lieberman, Rice and Giuliani are all pro-choice they would be savvy enough to make sure people knew that McCain was in charge of that area. Although many people say she would help McCain in terms of economics, the fact her experience in that area would lead many people to believe that her presence in the Naval Observatory would let the CEO wing of the Republican party continue to run riot in a McCain administration. After all, while most Americans accept that free trade and balanced budgets are necessary for the American dream, they are also tired of the ‘no-government anarchism’ that a vocal minority in the Republican party support.
Sarah Palin is also overrated. As Jindal’s problems in Louisiana demonstrate, it is patently absurd to lionize anyone before they have had a chance to prove themselves and, more importantly, shown that they can face adversity. There is also the question of whether McCain really wants a candidate who disagrees with him on energy policy and whose state is associated with big oil. There is also the risk that voters in Alaska might not vote for McCain/Palin ticket because they would rather have her as governor, rather as their Vice-President. Such sentimentality may sound silly but, as William Weld found out in 1996, it can sometimes have a very powerful impact on voters. In any case McCain should be trying to use his choice to turn blue states red, not to nail down far flung outposts that are relatively unimportant in electoral terms.
There are also positive reasons for picking Rice. Although she may have been underwhelming as Secretary of State and more mercenary and ‘neo-Condi’ in her beliefs than anything else, she does has enough credentials and experience to credibly assume the office of President. Also, with her on the ticket the temptation to revisit Iraq would be too tempting for even the newly disciplined Obama campaign. Even if I am sceptical of the necessity of choosing a women from an electoral perspective, I also believe that if McCain has to choose a mainline conservative (though he needs to choose a centrist) it would be nice to choose one who is as different from a while male as possible. At a minimum choosing Condi would signal that the Republican party is prepared to move with the times. I also believe that there is a significant minority of African-American voters who were turned off by the whole Wright-gate incident to the extent that, while they were not prepared to reward Hillary’s references to ‘hard working White people’, they are prepared to cross party lines in November provided appropriate gestures are made. Indeed, I firmly predict that choosing Condi would enable McCain to do much better among African-American voters than Bush did in 2004, even adjusting for potentially higher turnout.
