The Political Tipster

McCain is in serious trouble

My new projections are (my methodology is here):

Barack Obama 50.54
John McCain 44.40

I don’t like writing John McCain off. However, I have to say that the market consensus (of McCain having a 35% chance of victory in November) is about right – with or without Palin on the ticket (though he may have no choice but to dump her after the report on Troopergate comes out on Friday). Although I may be biased because I lost money betting on both vice-presidencies, the polls clearly state that the day before McCain decided to pick Governor Palin he was only 0.5% behind Obama, and trending upwards, as Obama’s selection of Biden was a dud and the Democratic convention was bland.

However, McCain now trails Obama by over 6% and Obama’s lead is widening. Indeed, trend analysis indicates that McCain could easily be 8-10% points down on election day, although the polls could be exaggerating Obama’s lead. At the very least it is clear that, while the selection of Sarah Palin may have energised the base, it destroyed McCain’s argument that Obama was too inexperienced. In a time of financial crisis the ‘experience card’ was extremely useful. At the same time, the Democratic have yet to effectively engage Palin. If, and when, they do McCain’s figures could get even worse.