Archive for the ‘Betting journal’ Category
June 12, 2008
TPT marks his betting journal to market
I have decided to mark my contracts to market to give my readers an objective idea of how I am doing. I am using the last traded price as the ‘market’ price and I am avoiding any of the contracts that are of only fractional value and highly illiquid. My estimation is that of today, I have $629.75 in combined cash and assets, which is a return of more than 25% (actually 25.95%) since September 2007. The main contracts are: McCain to win the GOP nomination (worth $370.11), A Republican to become President (worth $114.24), Obama not to become President ($65.96), one of the ‘field’ to become Obama’s running mate (worth $30.80), James Webb to become Obama’s running mate ($20.20), the ‘field’ to take the White House ($7.20), the GOP to retake the house ($3.60), Mark Warner to become Obama’s running mate ($3.20) and $14.40 in cash.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, mark to market | No Comments »
June 4, 2008
I just sold half of my contracts on Clinton being the next Democratic nominee. This has increased my free cash level to $9.49.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged barack obama, Betting journal, hillary clinton | No Comments »
March 14, 2008
I have bought seven more contracts on the GOP winning in November. This has left me with $3.32 in spare cash in my account.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, Republican party | No Comments »
March 4, 2008
I sold short three contract on Obama winning in Texas. This left me with $0.36 in liquid cash.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged barack obama, texas | No Comments »
March 2, 2008
I have bought 5 contracts on the Republican party winning in Connecticut. I believe that if McCain faces up against Barack Obama, or he selects Joe Lieberman as his running mate, he could have at least a 50% chance of winning there.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, connecticut, republican | No Comments »
February 24, 2008
I bought 25 contracts on the Republican re-taking the White House. This left me with $60.41 in ready cash.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged intrade, republican's 2008 | No Comments »
February 21, 2008
I bought 15 contracts on Giuliani winning the Republican nomination at 1.5, reducing my open exposure to -10 of Rudy and -10 on Ron Paul. Although I think 1.5 is a steep price to pay, people evidently believe that something will happen to McCain between now and the convention and I’ve got a lot of ideas for where my funds can go next.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, ron paul, rudolph giuliani | No Comments »
January 15, 2008
I’ve sold short 20 contracts of Giuliani winnng the Republican nomination. My rationale is that it is a three way contest (or two if McCain wins in Michigan tonight).
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, rudolph giuliani | 1 Comment »
January 13, 2008
I bought 35 contracts on Mitt Romney winning South Carolina. My belief is that unless he wins both Michigan and South Carolina he won’t be the nominee (leaving John McCain as the overwhelming favourite). This reduces my free funds to £127.61 but I am now almost guaranteed to turn a small profit (barring a series of unforseen events).
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, john mccain, mitt romney | No Comments »
January 10, 2008
Bought 10 contracts on a Huckabee victory in Michigan and 5 contracts on Bloomberg running. Both of these are value bets and hedges to my McCain position. After my successful shorting of Ron Paul, and today’s trades I have $156.86 in cash left.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, bloomberg, huckabee, mccain | 1 Comment »
January 5, 2008
I sold my remaining 5 contracts on John McCain winning the New Hampshire primary and bought 15 contracts on REP.NH.ROMNEY. Today’s polls indicate that the contest is very close and even someone who wants McCain to win (and not just because of the 39 contracts that I have on him being the nominee) has to accept that a price of 76% is just too high. I have $5.73 in liquid cash left.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, john mccain, mitt romney, new hampshire | No Comments »
January 3, 2008
Sold 3 contracts of REP.NH.MCCAIN and bought 6 contracts on REP.IA.ROMNEY. This is more a risk reduction on McCain and a search for value in Romney (in Iowa). This has left me with $3.99 in ready cash.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, iowa, john mccain, mitt romney | No Comments »
January 3, 2008
I sold one contract of REP.NH.MCCAIN and shorted 3 more contracts of DEM.IOWA.OBAMA leaving me with $0.67. I would advise people to be a little wary of one’s liquid cash on Intrade since they have a funny way of calculating margin - as I found out when I closed a position only to see my free cash go down.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, intrade | No Comments »
December 28, 2007
Last night I sold 4 more contracts of Fred Thompson and bought 2 contracts on him dropping out of the contest. Given the next post this might not have been the wisest decision.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, fred thompson | No Comments »
December 27, 2007
I sold 4 more contracts of Fred Thompson and added 10 more contracts of Giuliani.
Posted in Betting journal | Tagged Betting journal, fred thompson, rudolph giuliani | 1 Comment »
