Last night I sold 4 more contracts of Fred Thompson and bought 2 contracts on him dropping out of the contest. Given the next post this might not have been the wisest decision.
Archive for the ‘Betting journal’ Category
Continuing to draw down Thompson and build up Giuliani
December 27, 2007I sold 4 more contracts of Fred Thompson and added 10 more contracts of Giuliani.
Betting Journal: Sold Thompson Bought Giuliani
December 27, 2007I bought 17 contracts on Giuliani winning in Iowa and started to draw down my Fred Thompson position, selling 2 contracts. My total liquid cash is now $0.29.
Betting Journal: Bought 40 contracts of McCain in Iowa
December 20, 2007I’ve bought 40 contracts of REP.IOWA.MCCAIN at 5 apiece. Given that I think the real value in these contracts is about 15 I am going to hold them with the aim of selling them when they get closer to that price. This leaves me with $1.48 in cash.
Betting Journal: Adding to my Ron Paul free lunch
December 19, 2007I reinvested the profits that I made with my Mitt Romney short by shorting a few more REP.NH.FIELD contracts.
Betting Journal: Covering my Romney shorts
December 19, 2007I purchased 7 contracts on Romney winning in Iowa, covering my Romney short. It looks like the Mike Huckabee boom has definitely hit the buffers. This increases my free cash to $64.43.
Betting Journal: Bought 5 contracts on a third party victory
December 18, 2007I bought 5 more contracts on a third party/independant takeover of the White House. This is obviously a value bet if Romney or Huckabee wins the nomination. However, I predict that whichever of the five candidates wins the Republican nomination, disgruntled Ron Paulites will try to ramp this contract up - even if their candidate has no intention of running.
Betting Journal: Sold Labour and sold New Hampshire field
December 15, 2007I sold 1 of my contracts on Hillary Clinton winning the Democrat nomination and all 9 of my contracts on Labour forming the next government and shorted 13 contracts of the Field (not Huckabee, McCain, Romney or Giuliani) winning New Hampshire.
Betting Journal: Sold 7 contracts of Obama
December 8, 2007I sold short 7 contracts of Barack Obama in Iowa at 48 (52). This has left me with $4.28 in liquid cash.
Betting Journal: Sold 6 Clinton contracts
December 5, 2007I sold 6 Clinton contracts at $6.56 each. I believe that the Strategic Vision poll will cause her price to fall lower in the next few days, while fundamentally the NIE report on Iran will decrease the importance of foreign policy experience, helping Obama.
Betting Journal: Sold Thompson and bought Huckabee
November 30, 2007Because of recent events I need to properly recap the trades that I have made over the past few days. I have sold 31 contract of Fred Thomspon in total (bringing me down to 30) and bought 13 contracts on Huckabee. In total I have:
100 contracts of GOP.NOM.SANFORD
30 contracts of GOP.NOM.GINGRICH
30 contracts of GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
39 contracts of GOP.NOM,.MCCAIN
13 contracts of GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE
-10 contracts of GOP.NOM.PAUL
12 contracts of DEM.NOM.CLINTON
80 contracts of PRESIDENT.FIELD.2008
9 contracts of UK.LABOUR
9 contracts of HOUSE.GOP.2008
-7 contracts of REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
- 7 contracts of REP.NH.ROMNEY
10 contracts of REP.NH.HUCKABEE
10 contracts of REP.NH.MCCAIN
10 contracts of REP.NH.THOMPSON
10 contracts of DROPOUT.DEC07.GIULIANI
3 contracts of DROPOUT.DEC07.EDWARDS
10 contracts of DEM.VP.WARNER
10 contracts of DEM.VP.WEBB
10 contracts of DEM.VP.KERREY
10 contracts of DEM.VP.NUNN
10 contracts of DEM.VP.DASCHALE
10 contracts DEM.VP.FIELD
and $1.62 in cash.
Obviously, many of those contracts are only in my portfolio because I am unable to get rid of them but I am confident that collectively they are woth more than my initial sum of $500.
Betting Journal: Sold 15 contracts of Thompson
November 28, 2007I have started to draw down my position on Fred Thompson winning the GOP nomination, beginning with the sale of 15 contracts this morning. If he doesn’t bounce back in tonight’s debate I am going to reduce my position further.
Betting Journal: SOLD 5 contracts on Romney winning New Hampshire
November 26, 2007I just bet against Mitt Romney winning New Hampshire selling short 7 contracts on him winning there. This has reduced the amount of free cash that I have in my account to $1.24, with over 99.8% of my cash tied up in positions.
Betting Journal: SOLD 5 contracts on the GOP retaking the House
November 20, 2007I have decided to partially liquidate my position on the GOP retaking the House of Representatives by selling 5 of my contracts at $2.00 each, raising $10.00 before trading fees. A longer analysis of my decision will follow shortly.
Betting Journal: Daschale
November 14, 2007I have just bought 10 contracts on Tom Daschale (at a price of 0.1) becoming the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. This is not particularly likely, but he was one of the first to endorse Barack Obama, so it seems a possible value bet.
