Archive for the ‘British Politics’ Category
December 31, 2007
10 Predictions for 2008
1. Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucus…..
2. …but John McCain will win in New Hampshire
3…..and in South Carolina.
4. Different candidates will be declared the winner in the official results and in the ‘Entrance Poll’.
5. Barack Obama will NOT be the Democratic nominee for President.
6. Joe Lieberman will be nominated for the second spot on the Republican ticket.
7. The Democrats will nominate James Webb for Vice President.
8. Either Ron Paul or Michael Bloomberg will run for President.
8. There will be either an internal challenge to Gordon Brown or a surprise election.
9. A EU constitution referendum will be called this year in the UK.
Posted in British Politics, US Politics | Tagged predictions | 1 Comment »
December 22, 2007
Inputting the latest You Gov Poll into my spreadsheet and filtering the data produces the following projection: Conservatives 43.07 Labour 31.04 Liberal Democrats 15.93. Putting this into Baxter produces the following seats projection: Conservatives 375 Labour 230 Liberal Democrats 15. An updated spreadsheet is here the UNS formula predicts a slightly lower Conservative majority of 68 Given that a poll in tomorrow’s Guardian will announce a much closer result (although the detailed data needed for a projection is not yet available) this result should be regarded as provisional.
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservatives, labour, liberal democrats, You Gov | No Comments »
December 16, 2007
Inputting the latest You Gov Poll into my spreadsheet and filtering the data produces the following projection: Conservatives 44.72 Labour 32.02 Liberal Democrats 13.09. Putting this into Baxter produces the following seats projection: Conservatives 375 Labour 230 Liberal Democrats 15. An updated spreadsheet is here (the UNS formula predicts a slightly lower Conservative majority of 92).
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservatives, labour, liberal democrats, YouGov | 1 Comment »
December 12, 2007
Inputting the latest Mori poll into Samplemiser gives us the following projection: Conservatives 40.23 Labour 32.23 Liberal Democrats 15.86. This gives an unchanged projection of Conservatives 321 Labour 268 Liberal Democrats 30, which would be hung parliament but one with the Conservatives strong enough to run the government without having to seek a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. An updated copy of the filtered data since the end of August is available here british-polls-as-of-dec-12.pdf (a UNS is used for the parliamentary projections). Interesting over the hundred days for which I’ve kept records the UNS model has predicted a Labour majority and a hung parliament 44 times each with the Conservatives only winning a majority 12 times.
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservatives, labour, liberal democrats, Mori | No Comments »
December 10, 2007
Inputting the latest Populus poll into Samplemiser gives us the following projection: Conservatives 40.08 Labour 31.99 Lib Dem 15.99. This gives a projection of Conservatives 321 Labour 268 Liberal Democrats 30, which would be hung parliament but one with the Conservatives strong enough to run the government without having to seek a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. A copy of the filtered data since the end of August is available here uk-pollls-101207.pdf (a UNS is used for the parliamentary projections).
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservatives, labour, liberal democrats, populus | No Comments »
December 1, 2007
There have been a flurry of British polls. Putting the latest the latest YouGov poll (neither the sample sizes nor the survey dates for the latest ComRes poll have been released) and all the other polls since August produces a Conservative majority of 48 when the data is put through Samplmiser. As of November 29, the predicted vote shares are Conservatives 42.53 Labour 31.57 Lib Dems 15.05. This produces a projection of 245 seats for Labour, 349 for the Conservatives and 25 for the Lib Dems. The only good news for Labour is that the Conservative share of the vote doesn’t seem to be reaching the 43% mark. However, this is very cold comfort indeed.
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservatives, labour, liberal democrats | 2 Comments »
November 27, 2007
Putting the latest ICM poll and all the other polls since August produces a Conservative majority of when the data is put through Samplmiser. The predicted vote shares are Conservatives 39.94 Labour 27.52 Lib Dems 17.83. This produces a projection of 222 seats for Labour, 352 for the Conservatives and 45 for the Lib Dems. The only good news for Labour is that the Conservative share of the vote seems to be stuck at around 40% as voters move from Labour to the minor parties and Lib Dems.
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservatives, labour, Lib Dems | No Comments »
November 24, 2007
Adding the latest ICM poll to the YouGov poll, and assuming that the Lib Dem vote share is 21 rather than 23, produces a weighted average of Conservatives 39.46 Labour 31.61 and the Lib Dems 16.69. Putting this average into the collection of polls since the end of August produces a hung parliament when the data is put through Samplmiser. The predicted vote shares are Conservatives 39.51 Labour 31.7 Lib Dems 16.63. This produces a projection of 270 seats for Labour, 314 for the Conservatives and 35 for the Lib Dems. If the Conservatives can’t get a majority in the wake on the dire news about the Inland Revenue and the Lib Dems can only muster 35 seats, then this appears to confirm that the hype about a ‘Black November’ is unjustified.
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservatives, labour, Lib Dems | 1 Comment »
November 23, 2007
Adding the latest YouGov poll to the previous polls produces a clear Conservative parliamentary majority. The predicted shares are Conservatives 41 Labour 32.13 Lib Dems 13.98. This produces a prediction of 256 seats for Labour (-40), 336 for the Conservatives (+25) and 24 for the Lib Dems (+10). The only good news for Labour is that the combined Conservative and Lib Democrat share of the vote only increased slightly to 54.98, suggesting that the voters who have moved away from Labour have not moved to the Lib Dems or the Tories. It should also be empahsised that the Channel Four polls suggest that voters still believe that 51% of the public believe Labour to be competant in handling economic matters (against 42% who believe them incompetant). In contrast only 46% of the public believe the Conservative economic team to be competant in economic matters (against 47% who believe that they are incompetant). This might not be as bad for Labour as people believe, especially if it pushes Northern Rock of the headlines.
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservatives, labour, liberal democrats | No Comments »
November 18, 2007
Adding the latest YouGov poll to the previous polls only changes the picture slightly in terms of the popular vote. The predicted shares are Conservatives 41.06 Labour 35.01 Lib Dems 13.04. This produces a prediction of 296 seats for Labour (+15), 311 for the Conservatives (-10), ) and 14 for the Lib Dems (-5). The combined Conservative and Lib Democrat share of the vote is down to 54.1, suggest that it may be reverting to its ‘normal’ range of 50-53%. Overall, this is better news for Labour, especially since the tone of press coverage has been broadly negative, however they still need to take another 2% from the Conservatives to make the contest more competitive again. Brown really needs to seize the agenda, possibly by unequivocally stating that Northern Rock will be charged the full rate of interest on the emergency loan that the Bank of England made. Brown should also recognise that many of the short term gestures that he made in his appointments were not a success and that he should sack Mark Malloch Brown. Although this is better than the previous poll, Labour will need to improve things if a 2008 election is to be possible (although it still remains a value bet).
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservatives, labour, liberal democrats, YouGov | No Comments »
November 12, 2007
Inputting the latest ICM poll and putting the updated data through Samplemiser gives the following predicted voting shares: Conservatives 42.52 Labour 35.13 Lib Dems 15.04. Specifically, Baxter’s new model predicts 281 seats for Labour, 321 for the Conservatives and 19 for the Lib Dems (putting the previous figures into Baxter’s site gave Labour 340 seats, Conservatives 245 and Lib Dems 35). The Conservative party would be technically 5 short of a majority, although they would undoubtedly be able to form a government with the assistance of the various Ulster Unionist parties, or even function as a minority administration for a few months.
Posted in British Politics | No Comments »
November 6, 2007
Inputting the latest Populus poll into SampleMiser gives a projection of Labour 36.84%, Conservatives 36.31% and the Lib Dems 15.87%. This means that Labour is now projected to have an overall majority of 30. Labour has 340 seats (42 more than the previous projection), the Conservative 245 (-59) and the Lib Democrats with 35 seats (+16). The combined Tory and Lib Dem vote has fallen to 52.18%, suggesting that the combined Conservative and Liberal support lies in a narrow range between 50-53%. The spin from Conservative supporters is that this represents an improvement from the last Populus poll, which gave a Labour lead of 2%. However, I think it is more logical to compare the latest Populus poll with the more recent polls from their competitors, rather than with a poll from early October.
Posted in British Politics | Tagged conservative, labour, liberal democrats, populus | 2 Comments »
November 3, 2007
Inputting the latest Mori poll into Sample Miser gives a projection of Conservatives 40.09%, Labour 34.88% and the Lib Dems 13.34%. This translates into a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party with 304 seats (+1 from previous projection), Labour second with 298 (+14) seats and the Lib Democrats with 19 seats (-11). The combined Tory and Lib Dem vote has fallen to 53.43%, suggesting that the last two polls overestimated the extent to which support for the Liberal Democrats has recovered.
The methodology that I use to create these polls is realtively simple; I take polling data from UK Polling Report (and from the Mori Archive) and filter it through Sample Miser to produce a final figure. I then put the national vote shares through Martin Baxter’s prediction website to get a projection in terms of seats.
Posted in British Politics | No Comments »
October 31, 2007
Inputting the latest ComRes and ICM polls into Sample Miser gives a projection of Conservatives 40.52%, Labour 34.23% and the Lib Dems 16.81%. This translates into a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party with 303 seats, Labour second with 284 seats and the Lib Democrats with 30 seats. I’m still sceptical about these polls but it looks like the Lib Dem leadership contest has caused a movement away from Labour to the Lib Dems. However, I’m pretty sure that Labour will have re-established a lead by the end of the year.
Posted in British Politics | Tagged labour, Lib Dems, tories | No Comments »
October 29, 2007
Inputting the latest MORI poll and putting the updated data through Samplemiser gives the following predicted voting shares: Conservatives 40.85 Labour 38.45 Lib Dems 11.16. Martin Baxter has changed the methodology on his predictive website so this actully predicts a slighly worse outcome for Labour, despite the fact that the voting shares are more favourable for them. Specifically, Baxter’s new model predicts 331 seats for Labour, 283 for the Conservatives and 9 for the Lib Dems (putting the previous figures into Baxter’s site gives Labour 323 seats, Conservatives 289 and Lib Dems 11).
Posted in British Politics | No Comments »
